Sharp Bettors Fade Seahawks in Super Bowl Rematch as Sportsbooks Weigh Season Openers

The 2026 NFL season opens tonight with a Super Bowl rematch between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, and sportsbook action reveals sharp money flowing toward New England despite the defending champions' favored status. According to Jamey Pileggi, risk manager at Circa Sportsbook in Las Vegas, professional bettors are systematically fading Seattle, a pattern that recurs annually as favorites confront the psychological and physical toll of championship runs.

The Seahawks defeated the Patriots 29-13 in February's championship game and enter as -180 moneyline favorites, with the Patriots at +155. The spread sits at Seattle -3 (at -120) versus New England +3 (at even money). Pileggi noted that Circa initially opened the line at Patriots +5.5, reflecting significant sharp action pulling the line toward New England. The game kicks off at 8:20pm EDT from Lumen Field in Seattle.

Sharp bettors are examining specific matchup dynamics that could justify the fade. Drake Maye, New England's quarterback, was sacked six times by Seattle's defense in the Super Bowl. The Patriots' acquisition of star receiver A.J. Brown from Philadelphia adds an offensive weapon, while Seattle's defensive depth faces questions following Kenneth Walker III's departure to the Kansas City Chiefs as a free agent and the elevation of Jadarian Price to lead running back duties.

Tomorrow's Australia-based matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers presents different dynamics shaped by travel logistics. The 49ers arrived in Australia on September 4 to acclimate to the time zone, while the Rams arrive 24 hours before kickoff. At Circa, San Francisco is -115 underdogs at 3.5 points, with the Rams favored at -120. Los Angeles carries -215 moneyline odds versus San Francisco's +185.

Pileggi attributed modest San Francisco action partly to the travel advantage, noting that public money typically backs the favored Rams despite their offseason transformation. Los Angeles added star edge rusher Myles Garrett in a trade with Cleveland and secured the return of legendary defensive lineman Aaron Donald, who emerged from retirement after two years away. However, Donald is unavailable for the Australia game.

Elsewhere, the Las Vegas Raiders present sportsbooks with a familiar liability. Circa has accumulated enough Raiders championship bets to create approximately USD 1 million in potential loss if Las Vegas wins the Super Bowl. Pileggi expressed confidence in this exposure, stating the Raiders are not championship contenders this season. Against the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, Circa favors the Raiders at -3.5 (-105) with Miami at +3.5 (-115).

The Denver Broncos are drawing significant futures interest despite being in a competitive AFC West alongside the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. Quarterback Bo Nix's injury absence during preseason tempered earlier optimism, though coach Sean Payton's hiring continues attracting bettors.

The American Gaming Association projects USD 29.5 billion in legal NFL sports betting handle for the 2026-27 season, with Optimove research indicating 64% of bettors use at least two sportsbooks and 16% use three or more. First touchdown props remain the most popular wagering option due to rapid grading times. Unlike recent seasons, major quarterback injuries have not disrupted offseason betting lines.