Macquarie Projects Prediction Market Volume to Hit $1.5 Trillion by 2030

Prediction markets are on an accelerated growth trajectory according to a new analyst note from Macquarie, which projects the sector will achieve volumes far exceeding earlier industry estimates. The bank's analyst Chad Beynon forecasts turnover on yes/no exchanges will reach $1.5 trillion by 2030 - roughly 50 percent above projections from competing analysts made just months earlier. This represents explosive growth from current market volumes of approximately $22 billion.

Beynon's projections break the anticipated $1.5 trillion volume into two components: $783 billion from non-sports prediction markets and $705 billion from sports derivatives. This split underscores a critical insight about the sector's evolution. While sports and major sporting events like the World Cup have historically driven prediction market activity, non-sports categories are expanding faster and are expected to comprise the majority of trading volume by the end of the decade. Cryptocurrency and political derivatives represent the largest non-sports segments currently, indicating the market is maturing beyond its sports-betting origins into a broader event-trading ecosystem.

The revenue implications are substantial. Assuming a 3.25 percent take rate on taker volume, the $1.5 trillion in turnover could generate approximately $50 billion in aggregate annual revenue for prediction market operators by 2030. For context, Macquarie projects that an operator commanding 30 percent market share could generate $7 billion in EBITDA on $17 billion in sales within that timeframe. However, the analyst cautions that revenue distribution across the industry will likely fragment similar to how the online sports betting market is currently structured, with market share concentrated among a handful of dominant operators.

The competitive landscape is shifting rapidly. Currently, the prediction market industry has been dominated by privately held operators, but the field is broadening significantly. Major players positioned to capture share include sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel, along with emerging competitors such as Polymarket, Robinhood, Underdog, and cryptocurrency platforms. Meta Platforms also represents a potential entrant. Beynon specifically highlights FanDuel's partnerships with CME Group and Crypto.com as well as DraftKings' development of its own exchange infrastructure as evidence that traditional sportsbook operators are making serious commitments to prediction markets. These moves suggest that prediction markets and online sports betting will ultimately coexist, serving overlapping but distinct customer segments rather than cannibalizing each other.

From a strategic perspective, sportsbook operators' ability to pivot toward yes/no derivatives positions them advantageously for long-term growth. Assuming no additional states legalize sports wagering, Macquarie estimates the total addressable market for sports event contracts could exceed the online sports betting market by 50 percent by 2030, creating substantial upside for operators that build out derivatives capabilities alongside traditional wagering offerings.

The forecast reflects growing mainstream acceptance of prediction markets, despite ongoing regulatory scrutiny in certain jurisdictions. The sector's expansion into non-sports categories, combined with participation from established financial services and gaming firms, suggests prediction markets are transitioning from niche financial instruments to mainstream trading platforms.