Caribbean Stud Poker Probability
Caribbean Stud Poker has a relatively high house edge when you compare it to some of the other games available. The house edge is 5.224 percent. According to the studies done on Caribbean Stud Poker most players will raise about 52.23 percent of the time. The wager is usually around two dollars. So that will lessen the house edge a little bit, but you are still going to need to pay attention to the probabilities that exist. The probabilities will differ between casinos as well as online casinos. You should ask to see a pay table as well as return table, to understand what you could be dealing with for these games.
Below is one example of the probability table you might want to learn. It is broken down for the hands you may see in a Caribbean Stud Poker game. It will also show you what happens in different scenarios.
U.S. Rules Return Table |
|||||
Event |
Pays |
Units Won |
Combinations |
Probability |
Return |
Player wins with royal flush |
100 to 1 |
201 |
16759740 |
0.000001 |
0.000169 |
Player wins with straight flush |
50 to 1 |
101 |
156929720 |
0.000008 |
0.000795 |
Player wins with four of a kind |
20 to 1 |
41 |
2832435800 |
0.000142 |
0.005826 |
Player wins with full house |
7 to 1 |
15 |
16624475280 |
0.000834 |
0.01251 |
Player wins with flush |
5 to 1 |
11 |
21856990280 |
0.001097 |
0.012062 |
Player wins with straight |
4 to 1 |
9 |
43805516100 |
0.002198 |
0.019779 |
Player wins with three of a kind |
3 to 1 |
7 |
234242908320 |
0.011751 |
0.08226 |
Player wins with two pair |
2 to 1 |
5 |
488012139360 |
0.024482 |
0.122412 |
Player wins with pair or less |
1 to 1 |
3 |
2343248003808 |
0.117555 |
0.352665 |
Dealer doesn't qualify |
|
1 |
4532514033720 |
0.227385 |
0.227385 |
Push |
|
0 |
321623100 |
0.000016 |
0 |
Fold |
|
-1 |
9523005974460 |
0.477745 |
-0.477745 |
Dealer wins |
|
-3 |
2726592727512 |
0.136786 |
-0.410359 |
Total |
|
|
19933230517200 |
1 |
-0.052243 |
As you can see in the probabilities you are looking at different numbers than the house edge. When the house edge is a high number that means it is harder for the player. The low probability on the tables will signify if the hand is possible. For example look at the Royal Flush. The chance you will win this hand is .000001. That means your chances are almost zero for getting that win. The payout may be huge such as the 200 to 1, but if the win ratio is low for getting that hand you may never see it.
The hands that win the majority of the time are pairs, but you will also notice that most of the time a player will either fold or the dealer won't qualify for the hand to continue. This can take away a lot of the fun. If you can't get the dealer to qualify most of the game is going to be cards dealt out only to be returned again. For example you could have a royal flush, but if the dealer doesn't qualify the hand will not pay out. So make sure you understand the probabilities so you can play the game successfully.