NFL Week 4 Underdogs Deliver Sportsbook Wins, Patriots Upset Breaks Popular Parlays

National Football League Week 4 delivered an unexpectedly profitable Sunday for major sportsbooks, as underdogs defied conventional wisdom and posted a dominant 8-4-2 record against the spread, including five outright upset victories.

The week's defining moment came when the New England Patriots traveled to Buffalo and defeated the previously undefeated Bills 29-26 at their new Highmark Stadium. The significance of this result extended beyond the scoreline itself. Patriots quarterback Drake Maye, who had been benched the prior week after a disastrous 35-6 loss to Jacksonville, delivered an elite performance with 269 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception while posting a 91.0 total quarterback rating on ESPN (QBR). Maye also contributed 54 rushing yards on eight carries, taking only one sack. His resurgence proved pivotal not just for New England's playoff positioning but also for sportsbook profitability.

According to Christian Cipollini, senior trading manager at BetMGM, the Buffalo upset was particularly valuable because it disrupted "many of the common big favorite parlay bets." The Bills entered Week 4 as one of the most heavily wagered teams in the parlay market, making their home loss especially damaging to multi-leg tickets. Cipollini noted that complementary results from Tennessee and Miami covering the spread helped offset typical losing days for the book, but the Patriots' victory proved decisive. Detroit had attracted 80 percent of BetMGM's handle going into its matchup against Carolina, another underdog that pulled off an upset (32-26 as a three-point underdog).

Joey Feazel, head of football at Caesars Sportsbook, characterized the Patriots' upset as ironic and decisive: "The biggest result for the book came in Buffalo. In quite the dose of irony, the Patriots became the first team to hand the Bills a loss in their new stadium, taking down one of the most heavily bet parlay teams of the day. That upset circled the wagons for the book for the morning games."

Beyond the Patriots-Bills showdown, the week produced multiple opportunities for sportsbook gains. Jacksonville's 22-17 victory over Cincinnati, Dallas' must-win 34-30 triumph over Houston, and additional upset wins by the Rams, Giants, Chicago Bears, and Carolina Panthers all benefited the books. Feazel noted that even Dallas' win proved valuable: "That made for a rare week where the book was happy to be a Cowboys fan."

The upset-heavy slate also triggered significant movement in Super Bowl futures markets. The Philadelphia Eagles, who lost to the Rams 24-20, drifted from 16-to-1 odds to 22-to-1, while the Houston Texans fell from 40-to-1 to 66-to-1 following their loss to Dallas. Both teams' respective quarterbacks also saw their MVP odds lengthen alongside their championship prospects.

From a bettor perspective, early-week wins came from popular touchdown bets: Ravens running back Derrick Henry's first touchdown against the Titans, Bills quarterback Josh Allen, and Bills running back James Cook all generated early returns for those positioned correctly. These wins, combined with successes on the Rams, Giants, and Bears, created offsetting dynamics before the evening games completed the slate.

This outcome reflects the inherent unpredictability of NFL betting, where chalk-heavy betting patterns can quickly turn against sharp books and public bettors alike. For sportsbooks operating across Nevada and regulated markets nationwide, balancing exposure across favorites and underdogs remains critical to managing liability and maintaining profitability week-to-week.