Morgan Stanley Survey Reveals 25 Percent of North American Interns Use Prediction Markets

Morgan Stanley's annual summer intern survey has documented a significant shift in how young adults engage with prediction markets and betting applications. The investment bank's poll of more than 500 North American interns revealed that 25 percent had used a betting or prediction market application during the previous 12 months. The finding marks the first time Morgan Stanley included questions about prediction market usage in its yearly intern survey, suggesting the industry has become prominent enough to warrant tracking at the institutional level.

The concentration of usage among interns is noteworthy given that many respondents were 21 years old or younger. Among those who had participated in prediction markets, 55 percent reported using multiple betting or prediction market applications, indicating that users tend to sample offerings across different platforms rather than settling on a single provider.

This data arrives as prediction markets face intensifying regulatory and ethical scrutiny in the United States. A critical issue centers on age requirements: most U.S. states permit sports betting only for those 21 and older, yet some prediction market platforms have set their minimum age at 18. The National Council on Problem Gambling has raised concerns about this discrepancy. Recent NCPG data found that 37 percent of adults aged 18 to 34 had used a prediction market, suggesting participation extends well beyond the Morgan Stanley intern population and reflects a broader trend among younger demographics.

Wall Street firms are taking notice and implementing protective measures. Both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have introduced restrictions on employee participation in certain prediction markets. Morgan Stanley updated its employee code of conduct with provisions concerning prediction market trading, while Goldman Sachs prohibited trading in financial and political event contracts offered by yes-or-no exchanges. These internal policies signal concern within the financial services industry about reputational and compliance risks associated with prediction market engagement.

Some market operators are responding by tightening their own age policies. Novig, a sports-focused peer-to-peer exchange, recently became one of the first event contract platforms to adopt a nationwide 21-plus age requirement across all offerings, suggesting industry movement toward alignment with traditional sports betting standards.

The Morgan Stanley survey also examined whether prediction markets deliver superior forecasting accuracy compared to traditional methods. The bank's analysis found that prediction markets do not consistently outperform established approaches: complex polling aggregation can match or exceed market predictions, and teams of superforecasters have outperformed prediction markets when their forecasts were combined using statistical methods. This finding adds nuance to claims that prediction market participants possess superior collective wisdom.

The broader context shows prediction markets occupy an increasingly prominent position in the American betting landscape. As regulatory bodies, employers, and operators navigate age requirements, compliance frameworks, and accuracy standards, the Morgan Stanley data provides concrete evidence of adoption rates among affluent, financially sophisticated younger consumers. The 25 percent penetration rate among interns suggests the market has moved beyond niche status, though questions about appropriate guardrails and regulatory treatment remain unresolved.