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The New AR Bets In Roulette Online

By: Joe Valentino, Sunday July 15th 2012
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New AR is a European Roulette variant (single 0) that has been gaining popularity in land casinos, particularly in the United Kingdom. The leading software provider Playtech has brought this variant to online casinos through its recently released title New AR Roulette. In the normal roulette layout there are four popular even money bets, which are red, black, even and odd. Each of these bets covers 18 numbers. The New AR bets are formed by combining these bets. Eight of the red numbers are even and eight of the black numbers are odd. The first New AR bet covers those eight numbers that are red and even and also 0. It is designated as Even+Red/0 and is located between the Even and Red bets on the Playtech New AR Roulette layout. The other New AR bet covers those eight numbers that are black and odd and also 0. It is designated as Odd+Black/0 and is located between the Black and Odd bets on the roulette layout. In each of the bets if a colored number is called the payout is 3 to 1 and if 0 is called the payout is 2 to 1.

This article analyzes the mathematics of the New AR bets. Since both bets are identical, analyzing any one will suffice. The Even+Red/0 covers the nine numbers 0, 12, 14, 16, 18, 30, 32, 34 and 36. There are three unique outcomes, which are none of these numbers is called, a red and even number is called and 0 is called. It is assumed that $1 is wagered on this bet and the three different outcomes are analyzed separately

Outcome 1: A number not covered not covered by the bet

There are 28 such numbers

Probability of outcome = 28/37

The bet loses

Absolute loss = $1

Expectation = - (28/37)x1 = - 28/37

Outcome 2: A red and even number

There are 8 such numbers

Probability of outcome = 8/37

Payout is 3 to 1

Absolute gain = $3

Expectation = + (8/37)x3 = + 24/37

Outcome 3: 0

There is 1 such number

Probability of outcome = 1/37

Payout is 2 to 1

Absolute loss = $2

Expectation = + (1/37)x2 = + 2/37

Net expectation is -2/37 or -5.4%, or in other words the house edge is 5.4%. This is double the house edge of 2.7% for the usual bets in European Roulette, and even marginally more than the normal house edge in American Roulette. As offered in the Playtech New AR Roulette, these bets are not worth considering. The player would be better off placing equal bets on each of the nine single numbers.

There are two ways in which the New AR bet can be improved and brought on par with the normal bets. The simplest way is to increase the payout for 0 to 3 to 1 as well. In order to restrict the house edge to 2.7%, a block of 9 numbers should payout at 3 to 1. The other option is to cover only the eight numbers (without 0) and offer a payout of 7/2. Fortunately in roulette it is easy to analyze bets and any new bet offered must be analyzed and found suitable before being brought into play.

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