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Pai Gow Poker Probability

By:, Saturday June 7th 2008
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In Pai Gow Poker there are three possible outcomes to the game. In Pai Gow you are playing against the banker, not the other players. This means that you can either win or lose to the banker, or there can be a tie. The table below shows the probability for the outcomes.

Possible Outcomes in Pai Gow Poker



Player wins both




Banker wins both


Remember in Pai Gow there are two hands. You have the five card hand and the two card hand. In this chart we are just looking at the player winning both, the banker winning both, or a tie resulting. As you can see from the table there is a higher possibility that the tie will occur. This is at 41 percent. The player has a slightly lower probability of winning against the banker for both hands. This is due to the house edge.

The house edge will always be in favor of the banker. There is of course a strategy to use in order to lower the house edge, but you can learn more about that in other articles.

Let's look at the house edge when you have one player.

House Edge in One on One Pai Gow Poker


House Edge







This chart is showing the house edge against the player. As you can see that is 2.73 percent. If you are the banker your house edge is .20 percent because you owe the casino a commission. The combined status meaning you are a player as well as the banker has a lower house edge than just being a player. This means that in Pai Gow you want to be the banker as often as possible. You can even co bank if the casino will allow so you don't have to front the bank money.

When you add players to the game meaning there are more than two hands at play the house edge is going to change. We have included that chart as well so you can understand what might happen in this type of situation.

House Edge as Banker by Number of other Players

Other Players

House Edge













Even though you are not playing against the other players, they are going to affect the house edge. The more players you have the better probability and house edge you will have that the banker will not have the highest hand at the table.

In Pai Gow you need to remember your five card hand must be higher in value than your two card hand. You could foul out and lose your bet if you are concentrating too much on the probabilities of the game and the house edge, rather than playing the cards you are dealt. This game is really all about the cards, so make sure you understand the rules, the course of the play, and take full advantage of what you have been dealt.

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