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Caribbean Stud Poker Probability

By: CasinoAdvisor.com, Wednesday June 4th 2008
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Caribbean Stud Poker has a relatively high house edge when you compare it to some of the other games available. The house edge is 5.224 percent. According to the studies done on Caribbean Stud Poker most players will raise about 52.23 percent of the time. The wager is usually around two dollars. So that will lessen the house edge a little bit, but you are still going to need to pay attention to the probabilities that exist. The probabilities will differ between casinos as well as online casinos. You should ask to see a pay table as well as return table, to understand what you could be dealing with for these games.

Below is one example of the probability table you might want to learn. It is broken down for the hands you may see in a Caribbean Stud Poker game. It will also show you what happens in different scenarios.

U.S. Rules Return Table

Event

Pays

Units Won

Combinations

Probability

Return

Player wins with royal flush

100 to 1

201

16759740

0.000001

0.000169

Player wins with straight flush

50 to 1

101

156929720

0.000008

0.000795

Player wins with four of a kind

20 to 1

41

2832435800

0.000142

0.005826

Player wins with full house

7 to 1

15

16624475280

0.000834

0.01251

Player wins with flush

5 to 1

11

21856990280

0.001097

0.012062

Player wins with straight

4 to 1

9

43805516100

0.002198

0.019779

Player wins with three of a kind

3 to 1

7

234242908320

0.011751

0.08226

Player wins with two pair

2 to 1

5

488012139360

0.024482

0.122412

Player wins with pair or less

1 to 1

3

2343248003808

0.117555

0.352665

Dealer doesn't qualify

 

1

4532514033720

0.227385

0.227385

Push

 

0

321623100

0.000016

0

Fold

 

-1

9523005974460

0.477745

-0.477745

Dealer wins

 

-3

2726592727512

0.136786

-0.410359

Total

 

 

19933230517200

1

-0.052243

As you can see in the probabilities you are looking at different numbers than the house edge. When the house edge is a high number that means it is harder for the player. The low probability on the tables will signify if the hand is possible. For example look at the Royal Flush. The chance you will win this hand is .000001. That means your chances are almost zero for getting that win. The payout may be huge such as the 200 to 1, but if the win ratio is low for getting that hand you may never see it.

The hands that win the majority of the time are pairs, but you will also notice that most of the time a player will either fold or the dealer won't qualify for the hand to continue. This can take away a lot of the fun. If you can't get the dealer to qualify most of the game is going to be cards dealt out only to be returned again. For example you could have a royal flush, but if the dealer doesn't qualify the hand will not pay out. So make sure you understand the probabilities so you can play the game successfully.

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