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Blackjack Probabilities

By: CasinoAdvisor.com, Wednesday June 11th 2008
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In Blackjack you have probabilities that tell you when you might get one hand over the other. The probabilities are going to be dependent on the amount of decks you are playing with, as well as the casino rules. There are different rules and we are going to look at some of those variations now. The table below is based on the probability of certain hands for the rules. We will be looking at the pay as well as the effect.

Rule Variations

Rule

Effect

Blackjacks pay 2 to 1

+2.27%

Player may double on any number of cards

+0.23%

Ace and 10 after splitting aces is a blackjack

+0.19%

Player may draw to split aces

+0.19%

Dealer hits on soft 17

-0.22%

Blackjack pays 6-5

-1.39%

Player loses 17 ties

-1.87%

Blackjacks pay 1 to 1

-2.27%

Player loses 17,18 ties

-3.58%

Player loses 17-19 ties

-5.30%

Player loses 17-20 ties

-8.38%

Player loses 17-21 ties

-8.86%

Dealer bust on 22 is a push

-9.53%

These are just possibilities and not all casinos will have the same probability or effect that you see. If the blackjack table is paying out 2 to 1 which is most usual, there is 2.27 percent probability that you get the hand and will have that chance again.

This next table is showing you the house edge depending on the number of decks for the insurance. In Blackjack you can take insurance when the dealer has an ace showing. This is not a very wise strategy because the house edge is extremely high.

House Edge on Insurance

Number of Decks

House Edge

1

5.882%

2

6.796%

4

7.246%

6

7.395%

8

7.470%

As you can see with eight decks the house edge is going to be 7.470 percent. That is the highest house edge you could have in blackjack. It also means 9 times out of 10 you will lose the bet and your bankroll.

The probability for having a hand close to 21 is high. In blackjack it has been found that more often you get the high ranking cards. This means the 2 through 6 are rarely seen, even though the game is random. For example say you were dealt a ten and 2 for the first round and you want a hit. The probability is high you will get a nine or higher from the next card drawn.

The tables for when to hit, stand, double down or split are built on this logic. So make sure you take a look at the tables available. You will want to follow them, even if you end up losing a few hands by making that move. For example if you have a total of 8 and the dealer card is a ten you are supposed to take a hit. If the hit yields another 10 you are great, but you could still lose based on the face down card of the dealer and whether they take another card or two. You need to concentrate on getting a higher amount without busting.

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