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Baccarat Probobility

By: CasinoAdvisor.com, Tuesday June 3rd 2008
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We are going to look at a series of tables to help you understand the Baccarat probabilities.  These will change depending on the situation.  First of all in the game of baccarat you are going to be playing against the banker.  The hand you bet on needs to reach an 8 or 9 total, but not always.  In other words the higher score of the hand will win out.  You have three bets to place the banker, player or tie.  You can only bet on one at a time in most casinos.  If you place a bet on the banker there is a 5 percent commission out of your winnings owed to the casino.  For the banker the house edge is 1.04, player is 1.24, and the tie is 14.36 percent.  As you can see you are more likely to win with the house, but that is not an always situation.

The first chart we have to display shows you the probability when you have 8 decks.  Most casinos will play with 8 decks in the shoe.  You will also see the pay, combinations, and return in the chart.  The chart is based on the banker bet.

Banker Bet - 8 Decks

Event

Pays

Combinations

Probability

Return

Banker wins

0.95

2,292,252,566,437,888

0.458597

0.435668

Player wins

-1

2,230,518,282,592,256

0.446247

-0.446247

Tie

0

475,627,426,473,216

0.095156

0

Total

 

4,998,398,275,503,360

1

-0.010579

The next chart is based on the player bet.  You will notice there are slight differences in the table in the return area.  The other information is close to being the same.

Player Bet - 8 Decks

Event

Pays

Combinations

Probability

Return

Banker wins

-1

2,292,252,566,437,888

0.458597

-0.458597

Player wins

1

2,230,518,282,592,256

0.446247

0.446247

Tie

0

475,627,426,473,216

0.095156

0

Total

 

4,998,398,275,503,360

1

-0.012351

This last chart is going to show the tie bet for 8 decks.  You will notice the pay is 8 to 1 for the win on a tie.  There are also changes in the return.

Tie Bet 8 Decks

Event

Pays

Combinations

Probability

Return

Banker wins

-1

2,292,252,566,437,888

0.458597

-0.458597

Player wins

-1

2,230,518,282,592,256

0.446247

-0.446247

Tie

8

475,627,426,473,216

0.095156

0.761248

Total

 

4,998,398,275,503,360

1

-0.143596

We should also mention there are differences in the play when you have a pair.  In most baccarat games you rarely bet on the pair and it will depend on the table.  In some instances a pair will result when you deal the cards.  If the table allows you to bet on this pair you have an 11 to 1 payout.  There are only 6400 combinations to get pairs with a probability of .075.  The return is .82 percent.

If you look at the chart you will notice there are more combinations for the banker to win than there are the player and especially the tie.  In strategy it will be imperative to follow the better bet that you can make so that you get more winnings during the game.  The probabilities will show you the frequency that you win on any given bet.

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